MLB Batting Average Player Props: Best Over/Under Future Bets for 2026

OK, we’re down to just over two weeks to go until we get actual MLB games to watch and wager on! 

In the meantime, we have plenty of futures markets to wade through. Today I’m going to look at batting average over/unders. The good news on these? It’s a rate stat so relatively no worrying about injuries. The bad news? There’s a lot of batted-ball luck variance so we can maybe call it correctly on skill they displayed, but miss anyway if a bunch of well struck balls went right to fielders. 

Of course the reverse can work too, so that should theoretically even out. Anyways, here are my MLB Picks. All markets are from DraftKings and priced at -110.

Ben Rice OVER .245

I loved this one so much I wagered on it before I even wrote it up. Rice’s statcast page from 2025 is a sea of absolutely glorious red.

If you are not familiar with these, the numbers on the red bars indicate the percentile ranking among qualified MLB hitters. Rice was 90+ in everything power related like Barrel%, Avg EV, et al. And he also displayed from elite to above average plate skills. That’s just a fantastic combination. His actual batting average was .255 last year, but his xBA (what his batted ball profile suggests he should have hit) was .283. He’s 27 years old, so there’s no reason to expect any skills degradation, this is just a gift to get a guy with these skills at such a low number.

Daylen Lile over .266

We have a case here of projection systems adjusting slowly to a hitter who made huge strides last season. Lile was a middling OF prospect on the Nats a year ago this time with several elite ones like Dylan Crews, James Wood and Robert Hassell ranked ahead of him. But then he went and hit .328 in AAA in the early going and got the call up in late May and proceeded to bat .299. And it looked pretty legit as he had a near elite 83.5% Contact% and .302 xBA. And he makes good contact as he had a 100th percentile LA Sweet Spot%. Not sure Lile hits .300 again, but he should waltz past the .266 over//under.

Hunter Goodman Under .257

The Rockies catcher broke out in a major way in 2025, batting .272 with 31 homers and provided a rare bright spot on a wretchedly bad Rockies team. The power surge looks very real, but his batting average pop maybe not so much. 

He had a 26.3% K% which isn’t alarming, especially when its a guy with a 12.2% Barrel%. But its not real conducive to a good batting average, especially so given his 16.3% SwSte%. As a loose rule you can double SwStr% to “predict” a fair K%, so Goodman might have the same sort of year in 2026 and see his K% inch up to the 30% level. His xBA in 2025 was .244. He does play his home games in Coors, so you’d expect Rockies to “beat” their xBA’s more often than not. But still, .257 feels high.

Nick Kurtz Under .262

My case against Kurtz batting average is very similar to the one I just made on Goodman. Young hitter with monster power (36 homers in 489 PA’s, 18.3% Barrel%) who overachieved in Avg. 

Kurtz hit .290, but with just a .245 xBA. He blisters the ball with a 92.7 EV, but he just doesn’t make enough contact. His 67.3% was kind of lousy, as was his 30.9% K% (4th percentile) and 35.5% Whiff% (1st percentile). A 50+ homer season with a sub .240 average would not at all shock.